AAOI Blog Portfolio Performance Update:
Since inception on 9/23/2011 until Feb 1, 2013 the AAOI portfolio has generated a total return of approximately 55% vs. 33% for the S&P 500, 23% for the Russell 2k, and (-20%) for the S&P/TSX Venture index.
While my goal has always been absolute as opposed to relative performance, I was particularly pleased with the relative outperformance of the AAOI portfolio vs. the S&P/TSX-V index considering the relatively dramatic differential when over 50% of my holdings were listed on the venture exchange, at least over most of the time period in question.
Regardless, I was more than pleased with the portfolio’s results from an absolute standpoint. While difficult to pin down exactly given the Sandstorm Gold and Star Buffet errors, (after adjustments) it appears the annualized return has clocked in at roughly 40% give or take a percent since inception.
If I can manage to somehow continue on at this rate going forward I would obviously be a very happy man, but unfortunately something closer to half the current run rate is likely to be closer to what is achievable on a sustainable basis. That said, I should add that even with all the uncertainty in what I continue to believe is a risk-fraught global economic environment I cant remember ever being so bullish on the prospects of my current holdings, specifically as it relates to my highest conviction pics. Turning back towards the question of future performance though, if I can manage to generate returns approximating half the present run-rate over the long-run, rest assured your editor will be more than pleased.
Top 5 Positions as of 2/1/13
1. SHOS (~14%)
2. BYD-UN (~11%)
3. SND/STTYF (~10%)
4. SSL/SAND (~9%)
5. AF (~7%)
CAPs Ranking *since inception 11/9/2008 (updated 2/11/13)
Member Rating: 99.70 (members are ranked between 0 & 100)
Rank: #253 out of 74,961
Average Pick Score (% return above the S&P): +12.68
For readers who aren’t familiar with CAPs, its essentially a stock picking contest meant to harness the “wisdom of crowds” as well as a tool to more accurately measure a participants Alpha or raw stock picking ability relative to the S&P 500 (i.e., it’s a tool that is meant to help distinguish between the lucky and the good). Think of it like Moneyball for stock picking.
For a more in depth breakdown of CAPs check out The Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner’s interview which can be found here.
Please keep in mind that our blog portfolio, CAPs page and any of the individual stock picks within it are not under any circumstance to be construed an investment recommendation or advice in general. This site is for general are for educational and informational purposes only. Again, nothing contained here should be construed by anyone as an invitation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. This site does not contain personalized legal, tax, investment, or financial advice. Users of this site should consult with a qualified adviser to obtain advice suited to their personal circumstances. Any links provided here to other web sites are for informational purposes only.
AAOI Original Blog Portfolio
Sadly we decided to kill off the original Blog portfolio due to time constraints and the difficulties associated with attempting to juggle 20 different hats at the same time. From inception in late 2008 (11/22/2008) through its closure on 7/14/2010 the portfolio returned 21.34%, more than doubling the return of the S&P over the equivalent time period.
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